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Geek Culture / There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore

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BatVink
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 12:31
Found this on the BBC website today. When you think that the cost of making a film includes hiring big name actors, these figures are even more astonishing...


The next generation of consoles could shake up the games industry, with a game costing tens of millions of dollars to develop, say experts.
Making a title for the successors to the PlayStation 2, Xbox and GameCube could run into $20 or $30 million, game developers meeting in London were told.

But the price of a game in the shops is likely to stay the same.

It could mean many smaller software firms going bust or joining forces with other small companies.

Rising costs

Software companies have found the transition from one generation of gaming platform to another difficult, hitting sales and raising development costs

"We are very scared about the potential cost of PlayStation 3 games," Jez San, Chief Executive of Argonaut Games told the Games Developers Conference being held in London.

There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore. You won't make any money - Jez San, Argonaut Games

"Retail prices are not changing but the costs of development are increasing."

"This explains why the games industry is going through a consolidation this year. Consolidation is inevitable."

And he had an ominous prediction for the audience of game developers gathered at London's Earls Court conference centre.

"We have maybe 500 small development studios at the moment. We could have just 50 in two year's time."

"The market has grown up. There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore," said Mr San, who started off as one himself. "You won't make any money."

His comments were echoed by other industry figures who are preparing for the next generation of consoles to appear in the shops in two or three years' time.

"It is going to be a huge challenge dealing with the next generation of consoles," said David Lau-Kee, Chief Executive of Criterion Software which is behind titles like Burnout and Airblade.

Wanting more

The new consoles could have up to 1,000 times more processing power than current models and benefit from enhanced video and audio systems.


Gamers are expecting more from next gen consoles
"There are enormous technical challenges ahead with the new consoles," said Jez San of Argonaut. "And it is not just about content.

"Consumer expectations will be higher. They will want games that look and play better on the PS3."

It means the people making games are going to produce better and more advanced titles which are going to more time and money to develop.

"Games that take four or five years time now could take 10 years to develop," warned Ian Shaw, chief technology officer with games giant Electronic Arts.

He said the games industry had to become more efficient in the way it created games, looking at faster ways of turning an idea into a compelling interactive experience.

The Game Developers Conference Europe runs at London's Earls Court conference centre until Friday.

It is part of London Games Week, which brings together a range of industry and consumer events around the capital.

StevieVee
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Johnny Dark Afterlife
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 13:17 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 13:20
But since most games are made in Japan (and have been since the dawn of computer game time) I dont think we need to worry too much, or do we?

Yes I do belive that there is a problem though, in the not so far future 10,000 poly charature models will become the standard, leaving us low time coders out in the cold.

What about gameboy games?
Damokles
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 13:17
Quote: ""The market has grown up. There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore," said Mr San, who started off as one himself. "You won't make any money."
"


Money ? Is that really the main reason for bedroom programmers to create something ? look at http://developer.thegamecreators.com/?m=forum_view&t=15702&b=2

"Begin at the beginning, and go on till you come to the end: then stop." - Lewis Carroll
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 13:24
Hmm

True that there is not the immediate scope for bedroom programmers to make best-selling games that there was in the mid to late 80s to early 90s. And with Production values getting higher, and graphics getting ever further away from possible for a single individual to create, the future could look bleak.

BUT

And there's a big but - Most PC gamers are more eclectic in their tastes of games. Many popular games are not graphically unreachable on the PC, games with very basic games but in-depth gameplay are very successful.

The Sims, Championship Manager 4, Rollercoaster Tycoon II, Lemmings for Windows, Worms World Party, all stormed the charts recently and none of those are graphically beyond a skilled individual.

Also the budget PC games market takes more money than the full priced range, with "Sold-out" style products selling by the shedload.

AND there is a massive market for edu-tainment products at the moment, most of which are still easily achievable.

My preferred route tho would be to program a great game, (preferably something original and different, whilst still being fun) and get paid a flat fee for it to be distributed on a magazine cover as a "full product". You can get paid upwards of 10,000 for a reasonably sized amateur game so that gives the average person time to make maybe two or three games a year to make it worth their while, which is achievable.

Also, sometimes seriously popular freeware/shareware/budget PC games get noticed by larger companies an ported to console in new jazzed up versions.

If anyone does have a worthy contender (Finished, GOOD, ORIGINAL game), personally at the moment I would recommend you contact SEGA quick sharp as they are looking for decent homegrown project ideas like this for console, They are at ECTs 27-29 August (so hurry!) in Earls Court, London, stand 1470, or phone (0208)9953399 or email acquisitions@soe.sega.co.uk

Oh and if anyone reading this DOES make the next PS2 best-seller, remember the lil Kangaroo who pointed you in the right direction lol

Quikly Studio Pro. Soon. Honest.
Damokles
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 13:39 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 18:45
Quote: "there is a massive market for edu-tainment products at the moment, most of which are still easily achievable"


Totally right, it's also because education is different in each country, so game creators have to do it for a specific eductaion system. So those huge companies won't ever do it for every system (even Belgium, has 3 different education politics). So the bedroom programmer have their chance in that stuff.

By the way, if you are teacher, you can be sure, it will be used, because, you can give it at your lesson.

"Begin at the beginning, and go on till you come to the end: then stop." - Lewis Carroll
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 14:25
Between? you mean 'by the way'? Between and by the way sounds very similar in some languages(eg Greek) is it the same in Beglian?

-john D.
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 14:41
Question: 10 years ago was is possible for a single person to create an animetion over 10 minutes in lenght in less than a week? 10 years ago was there way for the average Joe to contect and exchange in information with someone on the other side of the planet? 10 years ago was is possble to have more than 100mb on a home computer? Wake up, in the last 10, no, 5 years technology has progressed by an unforseen rate, what was once state-of-the-art is now a childs play thing. What was once sic-fi became reality and then became toy in less than 2 years(bi-pedal robots anyone?). Why are you worring? Next-Gen software will only raise the stakes. Think about it, it was only 5 years ago the N64 was released, remember how we awwed at it's graphics, now we, that's right us, are supassing that level. Anyone seen Brent's models, they have the level of detail seen in retail games.

I strongly disagree with the above, I forsee a vast independant game industery all over the net by 2010. One can only press graphics so far untill it get pointless, I don't know about you, but little details like shadows of individual blades of grass are over looked by me. Once console game reach the limit of graphical suppiority, then the true form of game will take place, the story, the action, the very reason we play them in the first place. All we have to is wait for the technology to reach us and then use it, some of the greatest games I've everplayed were the peak of technology when they were created, and they are still my favorites. No matter the graphic or audio suppiority of next-gen games, my absolute facorites will be from the 16 bit era. Trust me on this, as things progress faster and faster, the wait till the average consumer gets them will only shrink as well. Eventually, games will be the same as books or movies, they will become canvas for who wishes to create.


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Johnny Dark Afterlife
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 16:27
Graphical suppiority is not defined, imagine in 10 years 10,000 poly models are the standard, only the best modellers can make those. The is no end point it will just keep on going and going.
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 16:28 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 16:31
As will the 'hand-me-downs', remember the internet was once a Goverment only deal.

Oh, and 10k poly models will be standard in less than 3, unless more companies follow the example Deux EX 2 is setting by using multiple texture to make 3k model look like 10k.


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Johnny Dark Afterlife
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 16:37
Oops typo it was supposed to be 100,000k
Dave J
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 16:51
Exactly right K2

Only the harcore gamers want superb state-of-the-art graphics, there's still the majority of more casual players that will settle with 16-bit graphics and look for these as well because they don't upgrade their computer every 2 months. I can guarantee you that most of your friends from school won't really care if it's 1 billion poly models or 500, just as long as it's fun.

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Arrow
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:08
What would be the point of 100k poly's on one character, it's over kill, not even in the FF movie did they use that much!


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Johnny Dark Afterlife
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:15
Well it looks more real, I mean we want to see our charactures individual hair move as a real persons would and I wont settle for less....there is always more to add, think how many polys it would take to make you exectly the same.
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:19 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 17:21
you forget the tools will improve with time as well, in ten years time it may be as easy for a hobbyist to make a 200k poly model as anyone else, the people making these games will not struggle with creating models that have fantastic polygon counts, they will make tools to enable them to make these models easily, and then people will copy those tools to enable them to do the same thing at home, and compilers will get more powerfull, so will the PC`s, the graphics cards etc, think what a gfx card did ten years back, then imagine the difference from that to a modern card, but taken from the modern card to the card you will have ten years from now, they may well have the physics engine and hardware shaders built in, it`s only the likes of Gates and his dumbed down future OS`s that threaten this vision of a bright future, when the only software you can run on your chipped PC is the stuff you have a licenced subscription to over your broadband connection, remember nothing you have in the way of software will actualy exist localy on your PC, about all you will have is dumbed down .net environment to use for programming, limited to spreadsheets and physics problems, and some people think having all the runnable code on their PC in a central repository accesable only by subscription is a good thing, yeah!, like Lemmings think cliffs are cool .

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Ian T
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:21
' 10 years ago was there way for the average Joe to contect and exchange in information with someone on the other side of the planet?'

Ummmm... yes! It's called IRC and it's been around since long before '93. Other then that, you make a good point

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Johnny Dark Afterlife
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:21
Cliffs are cool
Arrow
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:36
Trust me, you can create a photorealist human in less than 50k ploy. I think the FF movie only used 20k for their models.


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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 17:56
Why go to so much trouble? There is a point where the "fotorealism" becomes ludicrous, because it would be a lot cheaper to film an actor doing something that actually creating a model that's more real than we are.

I don't believe for a second that this is a waste of time. At worst the low end of the industry if the play pen, the ground that will seperate the chaff from the wheat. The best will go on and improve their skills, with a firm grasp of gaming in their minds, and then they will progress to more advanced development systems.

At best, it is a viable business in itself because people do not necessarily want photorealistic missions into the alpha quadrant, rescuing a princess from Species 74305. They might just want to paddle a digital ball against a digital wall.

Cellphone gaming is a great opportunity for new game-makers, for instance. It's a booming market, and with a development time of just a few months it's a viable market. You can't get too experimental on a cellphone screen.

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Ian T
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 18:09
' I think the FF movie only used 20k for their models.'

Perhaps why they looked like rubber

But yes, you can use around that many polys, you just need awesome textures and good compositionists.

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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 18:22 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 18:24
Glad someone agreed with some of my points

Personally I think "fotorealism" is more related to the texturing, shading and lighting rather than the polycount, but 20k would easily do it (especially remembering how wasteful many designers are today ). Use the right shaders and with a high enough spec PC it could automatically add each single pore, let alone hair, and still manipulate and light it accuractely

While current GBA and Mobile games are still relatively easy for a skilled individual to re-create, personally I'm quite interested in the Nokia NGage and Sony PSP which support 3d to roughly the same standards as the original Playstation. This seems to be the level that many of the best individual PC programmers and designers are capable so it could be interesting (Although no lazy Ridge Racer or DOOM rehashes please people )

Quikly Studio Pro. Soon. Honest.
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 18:55 Edited at: 28th Aug 2003 18:57
Quote: "Between? you mean 'by the way'? Between and by the way sounds very similar in some languages(eg Greek) is it the same in Beglian?"


Well, John Darkeye, to be honest, I have some thing greek here : O patera mou. But I'm glad you show me my mistakes, or I'll never learn to get a better english

"Begin at the beginning, and go on till you come to the end: then stop." - Lewis Carroll
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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 22:28
i'd suggest you guys sit back and think about this for a while...
although yes the cost of a game suchas C&C Generals was around the $13million mark,

remember this was developed over 2years
a)pay for 100 employee's who worked on it ranging from $20k-$280k/year
b)an external music & sound house (which is another 25 people)
c)cost of PCs ... 100pcs running for 10hrs/day 6days/week 330days/year equals to huge electricity bill, not to mention the lighting, air conditioning costs, canteen, etc...
d)the cost of publicity, TV Adverts, E3 Advertising & Booth, Magazine Advertising
e)the cost of professional interfaces for physics and such
f)training costs to train people in the use of Pixel & Vertex Shaders
e)around 30 new copyies of 3D Studio Max5 which was released halfway through development, along with all of the upgrades needed suchas Character Studio4 & Reactor2
f)prototype hardware from nVidia & ATi, as well as a few new top end systems to put the game through its paces
g)mai, cd & packaging cost for all 2,500 beta exclusive testers
f)GameSpy's exclusive Public Beta test agreement

not to be funny but a professional company has more costs because they have extremely operations and are trying to capture a world market.
not to mention they have to higher the expensive "big" names as it were to make sure that the standards of these titles are upto the publicity that EA will be spending alot of money on.

But to be truthful they do nothing particularly spectacular that a dedicated smaller team could.
Look at Cambridge Studios for example, they have a team fo 25people - they're last release Primal was given outstanding acclaim, they've also done the Medevil series which was just great.
They're budget for Sony is within the $1million mark ... i think its actually around the $650k/year mark last time i heard, compaired to EA Pacific's $13million - that is barely anything.
And the returns that Cambridge bring back are actually pretty much on par with anyone elses.

The costs of development isn't actually going up, its what companies are willing to spend to make thier titles the biggest success which is.

I doubt the day of the bedroom developer is even far from over, because alot of bedroom developers are moving with the times as is the software thier using ... and it is just as easy as ever to create a professional level title to a budget as it was 10years ago. Sure gamers will expect graphics, but never at the cost of gameplay - no one buys a game just to look at.

Whilst reviewer will always be hasty to pan graphics (although to be honest i don't think they have a clue whats good graphics and what isn't) at the end of the day if your game is every bit as playable as seasoned games ... and you have the will to push it, with the internet it is easier than ever to get your game seen by millions of people without much effort.

The only things thats holding bedroom developers back is that most now aren't the same as they were 10years ago, most are thinking more about the graphics and less about the games themselves.
Games aren't a case of simply making a few alterations to someone elses title, or simply putting a cube in a world, they're alot of hard work - something the current generations just aren't really willing to do.

and to be perfectly honest, if we get alot of the game companies weeded out from 500 to 50 ... this will actually finally put games BACK on track. It will mean rather than just producing 600 titles of pure bilge with a single diamond in there somewhere, we will finally start to see developers becomming more and more talented and putting in far more work to achieve thier goals.
We will see developers truely creating games again than just trying to get your hard ernt cash out of your pocket and into thiers.

Once the field is thinned out this will quite frankly mean that we'll be back to how games were before the Playstation hit, we'll be seeing novel & new games ... alot more thought going into the players experience rather than simply relying on graphics to win over from the competitors.

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Posted: 28th Aug 2003 23:57
I think what the industry lacks is good designers. Worlds look beautiful these days, and sound sounds awesome. Effects are brilliant, and speed is high .... but gameplay sucks? More originality .. and that's the designers fault.

People always say its incredibly hard to become a game designer, and I'm sure it is, but it should be, because from where I'm standing its the designers that are the weak links. Its the game ideas that suck and are unoriginal.

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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 00:22
The industry giants tend to spend money foolishly too. Remember ION storm

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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 00:42
Games with the amazing graphics, and super speeds dont always impress me. True, games are raising in standards a hell of alot, but the average bedroom programmer just basically wants to make a game, making money from it would just be an added bonus.

Yea graphics are on the up, but the gameplay is out the window. I think that bedroom programmers wont just stick with games to the standerds of Dbp forever, things will progress.

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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 03:04
i cant see myself how C&C Generals cost 13m
the actual playing bit of the game (not the intro movie and stuff)
could be acheived by a couple of bedroom coders in a year mebbe with slighty dumbed down ai.
the sound bytes are crap, the models are run of the mill and ai hasnt progressed much from red alert

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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 03:43
Dumbed down AI, eh? I personally think the AI in generals was quite poor. Even in generals, in multiplayer, its still a case of the AI just sending down a few waves of tanks now and then. Nuking you on the same bit of base over and over when their nuke is ready, building some planes and attacking the same fortification.

I'm with you. I think Generals is a good game, but bedroom programmers could do it too. There's nothing in it that I can see that's unobtainable. The only games that I think are hard to achieve for bedroom coders are games that incorporate professional voice acting, or professional motion capture, or rely heavily on high quality movie sequences etc.

If it did cost $13m then I'd say that's a lot of money wasted and I dont think Generals is much better as a result.

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Ian T
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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 04:49
Sounds like Age of Empires 1 AI, or worse... when you know that at one point, when the enemy gets 15 swordsman, they'll send down a group to attack a particular tower, never rememebering the 15 catapolts guarding it

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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 06:04
I don't think advances in modern technology stop what used to be fun from still being fun in a lot of cases. People will still be playing solitair on their computers when the computers are 5 times as powerfull as they are today.

bedroom coders may have to aim their sights in a slightly different direction if they want to make money but I don't think the money makeing idea applys to many here.

There is a point at which graphical improvement is pointless. The human sensory system is good at making the best of a bad situation, I can enjoy and be emersed as much in a game made 5+ years ago as I can a game made now.
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Posted: 29th Aug 2003 06:17
Quote: "I'm with you. I think Generals is a good game, but bedroom programmers could do it too"


perhaps... but the something bedroom coders generally can't do is make everything work so WELL together.
Generals has alot of twists and tweaks, although yes essentially just C&C in 3D - the air combat isn't a simply task, getting so many units and having thier Ai work at a fast speed isn't simple. Nor is the totally destoryable and changeable terrains.

and graphics might not be everything but with a GeForceFX card or possibly Radeon (although god know how it'll work on a Radeon as most of the shaders were specifically designed for the FX) also add alot of realism.

although on the exterior the game seems simple, alot of things work in it and make it an extremely complex affair, and the fact that Westwood got everything working so well together with so few bugs (i've not seen a shader game yet not suffer from terrible bugs and slowdown problems that includes Doom3 and Half-Life2) ... i think in all the game is a very stable and well structured, something that really i can't see a bedroom developer achieving without already being extremely understanding on how games are developed and with some good experience.

Although i'll agree with graphcial enhancements being pointless, there are more to certain enhancements than simply being able graphics... Shaders for example don't ONLY do graphics like you'd want to believe, but infact give you a second RISC processor with specific graphical enhancements but really it is a second processor similar to what you'd find in a console now at your disposal.

as soon as developers stop using it as a pure graphics tool and start using it as a 3D tool, then really there is no reason that a bedroom developer can't achieve what they can.

(and believe me when you use the GPU as a 3D tool, and optimise your code specifically for certain chipsets ... the world of 3D seems ever so much smaller in what you can accomplish. Realtime liquds for example are now possible with collision, there is an up comming GeForceFX 5900/6000 demo which shows this at work)

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