Hehe, can o worms huh!.
When I did it, I just moved the reticule forwards, as if it was a bullet firing from the gun - so it might not be dead centre. To compensate, I added nice iron sighting, so the gun comes into the centre of the screen for an accurate shot.
If you think about it, CounterStrike does it wrong. There's no magic bullets that appear from between the players eyes and follow a direct trajectory. To me, it's more noticable when you stand in front of a wall and check where the bullet ends up - accurate games have the bullet come right out of the gun, wheras more arcadey shooters often have that middle reticulte thing.
In reality, people just don't run around with their gun in their right hand like that - it's put there to keep it out of the way, really the gun would be in front, in the middle in a real situation. I suggest ignoring CS, and trying to work out gun poses for yourself - watch shooting videos on Youtube (gun people like to show off their guns). I mean, an UZI for instance would be held quite close to the chest, maybe to the side a little - with accurate shooting that would be absolutely perfect, but in CS it would probably be hanging at the side like it weighed a ton. You have the added problem of third person, so you need something that works well in both. Can you imagine the CS gun in a third person?, the head would have to be hanging to the side, sorta twisted back, as if one shoulder was heavier than the other. Even looking at that screenshot, you can tell that gun isn't centred well. Would you aim and fire a rifle without looking down the sights?
If you have any nephews, kids, relations who have decent sized toy guns, airsoft guns, anything to reasonable scale I suggest borrowing some and working out how you would hold and aim them. I actually bought a few plastic airsoft guns just for modelling. The time it saves is worth a few bucks for a cheap gun, some of them are actually quite well reproduced.
Not that I dislike CS, it's awesome, but if you want realism, then CS gun poses are not a good idea (unless your shooting someone in the kidneys).
Your right with the particles idea, you have that 3D location to spawn particles from, smoke etc, and also glue a gun flare, then show it for 1 frame when shooting, would look awesome and might only need just a plain. I would rotate it randomly on it's axis each time. You could even eject old shells, by adding a limb to track the position where the shells should eject. Really, with DBPro it's a matter of preperation, then you can emulate how the gun works exactly, how it's held, fired, and reloaded. It's good fun to work like that, very rewarding to have an awesome, accurate gun shooting 'real' bullets.
I'm a fan of having right click act as iron sights / scope, like have the gun flop about, have it at the side - but then bring it to the centre before firing - if the player is running when firing then what you get is free, 'accurate' running shooting (all over the place). Might be the way I play FPS games though, I prefer to sculk about and go for head shots, rather than run in guns blazing.