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Geek Culture / Crazy Idea

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Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 13th Mar 2015 22:33 Edited at: 13th Mar 2015 22:34
So I have had this idea for quite some time, and my recent venture into trading stocks on a simulator has inspired me to think more about this. A large premise behind investment trading relies on the price of a commodity or a security, such as gold or shares of a stock, changing between the time of purchase and selling. A problem with investing in either is that these changes in value can occur very slowly, and are never guaranteed to always go one way or the other. So here is my idea:

Some sort of company or organization would facilitate the trading of a special type of security (for which I have no name) known as a ‘unit’. Users would create accounts, and units could be traded between these accounts. Unlike stock shares or commodities, the price at which these units trade would not be determined by supply and demand or such. Rather, the company facilitating the trade of these units would determine the price. All purchasing and selling of units would occur at a price set by this company. The company would, over time, raise the price of the units at a steady rate. For instance, units may trade at 50 cents right now; in one week, they will trade for 10% more, or 55 cents. The price at which a unit trades would only ever rise at a steady and consistent rate, and would never fall, as guaranteed by the company facilitating the trades thereof.

Now with items such as stocks and commodities, the main (or a primary) motive behind their purchase is their value. Commodities such as gold have value for obvious reasons, and stock shares have value due to the dividends they may pay. So where would these units I speak of get their value? Merely the fact that the price will, without doubt, continue to rise, and be tradeable for a profit. The only risk an individual would take in buying these units is the potential problem of being unable to sell them, due to a lack of willing buyers. However, if this risk were to be overlooked by potential buyers, the units would indeed have value and, in theory, should sell.

I have had this idea for years, and I have told several people. Most people tell me it wouldn’t work, and my own intuition tells me it wouldn’t work, but I have no idea why. So what do you all think? Would this work, or not? I even had one person tell me that my idea sounds a lot like a scam, which is probably true to some extent.

The potential risk of being unable to sell seems like the biggest logistical problem to me. If something of this nature had a large base of users trading at a heavy volume, people would have a more optimistic viewpoint of the idea of trading units. However, a company of my idea may find it impossible to get off the ground without serious amounts of capital to grow a user base, as people wouldn’t trust such a form a trading without first being shown that it works.

This also seems like ‘free money’ to me. What would be the source of the money going into these profits? At least with trading on the stock market, people who make money effectively derive that from other individuals on the market who lose money. Losing money, however, is theoretically not possible with my system (assuming units are sold without resistance).

So yeah, just a random idea I had. Be interested to hear what you folks think of it, and reasons why it may not work.

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MrValentine
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Posted: 13th Mar 2015 23:18
#BitCoin

bitJericho
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Posted: 13th Mar 2015 23:34
He's not describing bitcoins, he's describing bonds.

TheComet
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Posted: 13th Mar 2015 23:59
Raise the price until no one can afford it any more, and you get the same situation as when the housing bubble burst, or the company goes crazy with power (as is the case with every major corporation) and abuses their control over the price in a way to make investments that only favour them, whichever comes first.

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Ortu
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 00:07
one problem is that it will eventually rise to a price where it is prohibitive to buy. few if any will be able to buy and people will be unable to sell.

though the supply is infinite thru will eventually become unattainable.

supply and demand would normally cause they price to drop to sellable levels, but you are prevented from this on this system, because there's only factor to drive demand is 0 loss.

it's a scheme because it works really well ford those that get in early and sell at the right time. people in rugged middle will get limited and constantly lessening returns while there's people at the end unable to sell are just screwed.

it's unsustainable.

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 06:13 Edited at: 14th Mar 2015 06:17
Quote: "#BitCoin"
Nope, that has the same problem as stocks.

Quote: "He's not describing bitcoins, he's describing bonds."
Quote: "A bond is a debt investment in which an investor loans money to an entity (typically corporate or governmental) which borrows the funds for a defined period of time at a variable or fixed interest rate."
Ah yeah, they do sound similar!

Quote: "Raise the price until no one can afford it any more"
Quote: "one problem is that it will eventually rise to a price where it is prohibitive to buy"
Indeed! I was thinking the units would split occasionally. Say every few months, each unit splits into two units, each half the price of the original at the time of the split. A $1.00 unit would be split into two $0.50 units, or some such.

So, then, my idea is basically a publicly accessible and convenient way of making money via bonds? Though a person buying a unit isn't necessarily lending money to the company that facilitates all the action, but rather giving money outright to the individual from whom they are purchasing the units. I was also thinking, when this company were first to start, it would give out several thousand (or more) free units to the first group of people to get involved, who would then be able to sell them for a price.

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Ortu
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 06:38 Edited at: 14th Mar 2015 06:39
Hmm, looking at it that way it is more of a chained loan system then an investment system.

With a bond you loan money to the issuer and get a bit of interest back when they repay it, here you still loan then money, but instead of them repaying you, the burden is on you to find someone else to loan you the original amount plus interest,

... It's not a pay it forward loan, it's a collect it forward loan.

Because it is technically a sale transaction not a loan, the seller/debtor is then free and clear and you the buyer/lender are now on the hook to find a buyer. Seems like a risky game of hot potatoe more trouble than its probably worth.

bitJericho
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 09:53
Quote: "I was also thinking, when this company were first to start, it would give out several thousand (or more) free units to the first group of people to get involved, who would then be able to sell them for a price."


That's a pyramid scheme.

BatVink
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 11:38
What you are describing is a standard bank savings account.

You give them cash (units) in return for interest ("The company would, over time, raise the price of the units at a steady rate"). They invest your cash in stocks, shares and bonds in order to pay your interest.

Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur
Clonkex
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 13:16
Quote: "That's a pyramid scheme."


lol

Quote: "What you are describing is a standard bank savings account."


Except that you're guaranteed to be able to "sell" the units again because you just take your money out of the bank (assuming, of course, the bank doesn't collapse - but these days that's pretty unlikely).

Economy theory can be surprisingly interesting

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 14th Mar 2015 20:08
Quote: "That's a pyramid scheme."
Ahhhhhh, that sounds bad. I shall have to research what that is.

Quote: "What you are describing is a standard bank savings account."
True! Hadn't though about that. A standard bank account savings, though, with an interest rate on steroids.

Quote: "assuming, of course, the bank doesn't collapse - but these days that's pretty unlikely"
It is unlikely, and here in the US, we have the FDIC, which insures each depositor up to $100,000.00. It's a governmental corporation that all banks are required to be insured by, but I don't think it's been used a single time since it was implemented during the Great Depression.

Quote: "Economy theory can be surprisingly interesting"
I agree! I have always been fascinated by economics.

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BMacZero
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Posted: 15th Mar 2015 04:31
Quote: "It is unlikely, and here in the US, we have the FDIC, which insures each depositor up to $100,000.00. It's a governmental corporation that all banks are required to be insured by, but I don't think it's been used a single time since it was implemented during the Great Depression."

The amount is $250,000 these days, and they've already paid out 4 times this year alone.
https://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html


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Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 15th Mar 2015 05:30 Edited at: 15th Mar 2015 05:32
Quote: "The amount is $250,000 these days"
Right; why did I say $100,000.00??? Just the other day I was thinking about how 250k is an absolute butt ton of money to guarantee to each depositor.

Quote: "they've already paid out 4 times this year alone"
So it looks like Wikipedia was a little optimistic.

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BMacZero
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Posted: 15th Mar 2015 05:39
Quote: "So it looks like Wikipedia was a little optimistic."

Wikipedia says that no depositor has lost money - that is because the FDIC is paying them when the banks go down


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Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 15th Mar 2015 06:27
Quote: "Wikipedia says that no depositor has lost money"
Ahhh right, that would explain my confusion. Thanks for clarifying.

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Matty H
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Posted: 15th Mar 2015 18:46
I agree with bitJericho, it is a pyramid scheme, just a slower version which makes it not as obvious.

You can't create wealth from nothing, if everyone could just purchase units and get a guaranteed return then the laws of mathematics have broken down. No one would be working, just collecting more units, so there would be nothing to buy with the money you get back. That's taking it to the extreme, but any theory should be tested at it's extremes imo.

The banks can get away with it as long as the economy grows, so in a way, our monetary system is a Ponzi scheme also. But as long as the extra wealth is created(growing economy) everything can seem to be fine for a while.

CJB
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Posted: 16th Mar 2015 15:43 Edited at: 16th Mar 2015 15:45
I think this would be described as a Ponzi scheme. It will only ever work if you can attract more and more investment. As soon as a certain percentage say they want to sell, the whole scheme falls to bits.

- oh, and it is fraudulent. Lol.

Read more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme (I know... Wikipedia!)


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Uzmadesign
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 01:17
Quote: "You can't create wealth from nothing"


Well you can, but then inflation kicks in and that wealth becomes worthless.

Quote: "The banks can get away with it as long as the economy grows, so in a way, our monetary system is a Ponzi scheme also."


I watched a very interesting documentary a few months back that talked about exactly that. Can't remember the name of it.

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 01:58
Quote: "You can't create wealth from nothing"
If only one could!

Quote: "That's taking it to the extreme, but any theory should be tested at it's extremes imo."
I agree. I never took my idea to that level, but now I do see.

Quote: "- oh, and it is fraudulent. Lol."
Haha! Of course, I don't have any intention to do something like this, but it's an interesting hypothetical scenario to consider.

So say, hypothetically speaking, the company that ran this whole deal was a non-profit organization, received absolutely no money from any individual participating in the experiment (including not being allowed to own any of its own units), and ran entirely off of donations (because everyone would donate to this ). Additionally, each time one went to purchase these units, a clear warning would be given to them, stating that there is absolutely no guarantee of the ability to sell said units in the future. In this case, it would come across as more of an experiment, and less of a scheme or scam. Of course, it still wouldn't be sustainable. Perhaps some limits would have to be placed on the whole system? Just some interesting stuff to think about!

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Clonkex
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BatVink
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 06:47
Quote: "You can't create wealth from nothing"



It is a slow day in a little Greek Village, the rain is beating down and the streets are deserted.

Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the taverna.

The publican slips the money along to the local escort drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

The escort then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note.

The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything.
No one earned anything.
However, the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the bailout package works

Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur
Clonkex
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 07:08
Quote: "And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the bailout package works"


Huh, very well described. Interesting concept.

Matty H
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 11:13
Quote: "And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the bailout package works"


It could be argued that you have just destroyed the economy in about 7 minutes

Those debt obligations are money, so now there is no money in that town. Until the hotel owner goes to get his sausages the next day, and needs to get credit again.

I have no problem with money as credit, for me, the problem arises when you add a bank into that town who collects interest. People no longer keep credits between themselves, but go to the bank for credit. It's important to know that the bank has no money either, they just keep score of who owes what. The interest burden on every piece of credit can cripple an economy, not to mention that the bank makes money by issuing credit, so they will always issue too much. We see this all the time in our real economies.

The bank will get bigger and bigger and the people will have less and less. Someone mentioned bitcoin, this is possibly one way to return the ledger of credits/debts back to the people without the interest burden.

CJB
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Posted: 17th Mar 2015 12:13 Edited at: 17th Mar 2015 12:13
#MAXcoin

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Uzmadesign
Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 05:36 Edited at: 18th Mar 2015 05:39
Quote: "The following software related topics, and discussion of them, are banned from all of our forums:"
Quote: "3.3 Spam / Pyramid schemes"


Quote: "in about 7 minutes"
That's about how long it took for me to read and understand all the European lingo in that post. But indeed, great explanation for how that works.

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Clonkex
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 10:35
Quote: "That's about how long it took for me to read and understand all the European lingo in that post."


What lingo? "€100 note" is the only thing I can see.

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 13:27
Quote: "€100 note"
Nope, I understand that just fine.

Quote: "hotelier"
Quote: "butcher"
Quote: "taverna"
Quote: "publican"
Quote: "escort"
Quote: "proprietor"
Yes, I actually have no idea what many of those words mean on their own. I can make a good guess, based on textual context, but they aren't particularly familiar words to me. And I have a good vocabulary among the people I know!

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Jeku
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 16:42
If the bank only insures up to $250k, and let's say you're a billionaire, how is the rest of that insured? Would you have to buy extra insurance? Who would insure that much money anyways? I'd imagine a lot of that is diversified into real estate and business holdings, and *maybe* offshore bank accounts. That being said, Bill Gates probably has a few billion in his bank accounts ready to be withdrawn, or so you'd think. Seems kind of risky to me.

Then again, that would be a GREAT problem to have

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BatVink
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 17:38
Quote: "hotelier" - Hotel Manager (Translates directly across all of European languages, originally French I think)
Quote: "butcher" - Meat Seller (Translates directly across all of European languages)
Quote: "taverna" - Pub (British)
Quote: "publican" - Pub Manager (British)
Quote: "escort" - high-class prostitute ((Translates directly across all of European languages))
Quote: "proprietor" - Owner (Translates directly across all of European languages)

Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur
Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 18th Mar 2015 22:01 Edited at: 18th Mar 2015 22:40
Quote: "and let's say you're a billionaire, how is the rest of that insured?"
Well, theoretically, I don't think it is insured. :S Is there a system in Europe (or Canada, where you are) that insures such great amounts of money? Maybe the safest thing would just be, if you have that much money, to get a true bank safe vault built just for you.

Quote: "that would be a GREAT problem to have"
Yes it would be.

Ah, you have cleared up the meaning of those words quite well BatVink. They were all familiar sounding words, but they definitely aren't used on a daily basis by most people here in the states.

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Clonkex
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 05:10
Quote: "Quote: "hotelier"
Quote: "taverna"
Quote: "publican"
Quote: "escort""


I know what all these words mean, but they're pretty rarely used in Australia.

Quote: "Quote: "butcher"
Quote: "proprietor""


You don't use those words in the US?? Huh, they're extremely common in Australia. What do you call a butcher? We would say something like, "...and I'll grab a leg of lamb from the butcher's on the way back."

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 05:48 Edited at: 19th Mar 2015 05:49
Quote: "What do you call a butcher?"
A butcher. I am not sure how it is elsewhere, though, but I highly doubt 99% of Americans come in contact with a butcher even as often as once per year.

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BatVink
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 09:07
Butchers date back to very historic times (up to the 1990s and possibly the millennium) when people purchased raw ingredients from purveyors of fine ingredients, and cooked their own meals. During this period, kitchens were furnished with pans and cooking utensils. People would spend upwards of 30 minutes concocting nutritious and wholesome meals. Today, this archaic concept has been replaced with readymade frozen meals, overladen with sugars, fats and MSGs. Containers double up as plates, relinquishing cupboard space previously used for crockery, for popcorn and doughnuts (British English spelling).

In remote parts of the world (such as Britain, France and other European countries), the tradition of cooking one's own meals is still upheld.

Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 09:11
[b][/b]
Clonkex
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 12:00
Quote: "I am not sure how it is elsewhere, though, but I highly doubt 99% of Americans come in contact with a butcher even as often as once per year."


Huh, it's definitely not uncommon in Australia to go to the butcher for meat, particularly for special occasions.

Quote: "During this period, kitchens were furnished with pans and cooking utensils. People would spend upwards of 30 minutes concocting nutritious and wholesome meals. Today, this archaic concept has been replaced with readymade frozen meals, overladen with sugars, fats and MSGs."


Quote: "In remote parts of the world (such as Britain, France and other European countries), the tradition of cooking one's own meals is still upheld."


rofl Hahaha...

And yay Australia isn't a remote part of the world

BiggAdd
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 15:42
Quote: "Butchers date back to very historic times (up to the 1990s and possibly the millennium) when people purchased raw ingredients from purveyors of fine ingredients, and cooked their own meals. During this period, kitchens were furnished with pans and cooking utensils. People would spend upwards of 30 minutes concocting nutritious and wholesome meals. Today, this archaic concept has been replaced with readymade frozen meals, overladen with sugars, fats and MSGs. Containers double up as plates, relinquishing cupboard space previously used for crockery, for popcorn and doughnuts (British English spelling).

In remote parts of the world (such as Britain, France and other European countries), the tradition of cooking one's own meals is still upheld."


Its a good job you didn't say "Fishmonger".

Ortu
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 17:03
pfft we do plenty of cooking, around here the is a big push for local source organic. foodies are quite the thing right now and frozen and processed food are looked down upon, but we don't need to go to a butcher to get fresh meat. go to the supermarket / grocery store, most of them do have a butcher but you don't need to go interact with them unless you want something specific and non standard. most of what you need is already cut and portioned earlier that day and on the shelves. grab it and go.

that said with the exception of publican id say that most of the people I know are familiar with all of those words, though other words are used more commonly.

Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 19th Mar 2015 22:56
Quote: "During this period, kitchens were furnished with pans and cooking utensils. People would spend upwards of 30 minutes concocting nutritious and wholesome meals. Today, this archaic concept has been replaced with readymade frozen meals, overladen with sugars, fats and MSGs. In remote parts of the world (such as Britain, France and other European countries), the tradition of cooking one's own meals is still upheld."
LOL! I cook more than one might think. The other day I roasted diced potatoes in the oven, which were pretty epic. Last night I created my own garlic pasta sauce recipe; a bit too much olive oil. I have also made things like macaroni salad, fried potatoes (love potatoes), interesting BisQuik combinations, pancakes, eggs, and a variety of things. However, frozen TV dinners remain my preferred method of dinnering.

Quote: "around here the is a big push for local source organic. foodies are quite the thing right now and frozen and processed food are looked down upon"
Oh, you haven't even seen how Colorado is! There are soo many stores here that specialize in all locally grown stuff, grown maybe as far as Texas, or perhaps Wisconsin if it's cheese.

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Clonkex
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Posted: 20th Mar 2015 10:37
Quote: "The other day I roasted diced potatoes in the oven"


Yuuuum!

Quote: "I have also made things like macaroni salad"


Served cold? Not really my thing.

Quote: "fried potatoes (love potatoes)"


Me too! And when you fry anything it's instantly better

Quote: "interesting BisQuik combinations"


BisQuik?

Quote: "Oh, you haven't even seen how Colorado is! There are soo many stores here that specialize in all locally grown stuff, grown maybe as far as Texas, or perhaps Wisconsin if it's cheese."


It's kind of strange how the US has so many states. Australia and the US have very approximately the same land mass, but where Australia only has six states a crappy dried up "territory", the US has forty-something states! It makes the US seem so much more interesting. In Australia, New South Wales is the "main" state, sort of. It's the best one anyway. It's got Sydney in it. Queensland is ok, but they have weird road rules there (like you are not allowed to drive across a solid white line EVEN to turn into a driveway!). Victoria has trams, so it's dumb. South Australia is... well, I don't know much about SA. Western Australia is too far away from everything (I mean, it's on the yucky side of the country). The Northern Territory is just red dust and doesn't count for anything.

Off to watch Breaking Bad now

bitJericho
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Posted: 20th Mar 2015 11:33
We have 50 states. Each one is a little different from the others.



Ortu
DBPro Master
16
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Joined: 21st Nov 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Posted: 20th Mar 2015 15:22
yeah, we often group by region where there's states on a region are fairly similar, but there has still something like a dozen regions.

northwest, southwest, intermountain, great plains, Midwest, the south, east coast, north east, then you have Texas and California which are big enough and distinct enough to practically be thier own regions.

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