Im gonna mathematically calculate and see what the chances are of reaching the 60k goal and the 150k goal. Assuming that the rate of pledging stays the same and doesnt decline.
THESE CALCULATIONS ARE TO FIND A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE PROBABILIY OF THE KICKSTARTER REACHING ITS GOAL AND BIGGEST STRETCH GOAL
So far at the time I write this there are 64 backers and 4145 pounds. That is an everage of
64.765625 pounds per backer. Huh, almost a perfect square root...
Now I need to calculate money backed per hour.
Assuming that the kickstarter was started around 12 hours ago (rough estimate based on what JMooney said):
Finding number of backers per hour: 64/12= 5.333.....3 backers/hr
So there are an average of 5 and one third backers per hour.
Multiply this by 24 to get backers per day:
5.3333...3 X 24 = 128 backers per day.
Multiply by 30 to find out how many backs there will be in 30 days:
128 X 30 = 3840 backers per 30 days.
Now to find out how much money pledged there would be from 3840 backers, I multiply the average amount of money pledged right now to find the resulting amount:
3840 X 64.765625 = 248700 pounds.
So, in theory, given that the rate of backing stays constant, and everybody pledges at least 65 dollars, then the probability that TGC will reach their goal seems like it is very likely.
However, this does not account for those who have only pledged just one dollar or over a thousand dollars, so it may or may not be one-hundred percent accurate. These calculations are basically saying also that there will be people backing at times when most will be asleep.
I'll probably try and do these caclulations every week or se to see how well the kickstarter is doing.
Good Luck TGC! FPSCR looks really awesome!

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